Espanyol II vs Atlético Baleares Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Espanyol II and 1.03 for Atlético Baleares, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives Espanyol II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Espanyol II win

54.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.76 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Espanyol II home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Baleares away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Espanyol II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 23% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Espanyol II and 1.03 for Atlético Baleares, a combined 2.79 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Espanyol II win55%

Draw23%

Atlético Baleares win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–111.1%
1–010.8%
2–19.8%
2–09.5%
0–16.3%

Recent form

Espanyol II

2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Peña Sport · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Calamocha · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SD Logroñés · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilassar Mar · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-22T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnastic · 3-0 (W)

Atlético Baleares

2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Cieza · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Ucam Murcia · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Intercity · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Yeclano · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs SS Reyes · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ucam Murcia	6	4	0	2	8	12
2	Castellón II	6	4	0	2	6	12
3	Castellonense	6	4	0	2	4	12
4	La Nucía	6	4	0	2	4	12
5	Cieza	6	3	2	1	6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	3	2	1	2	11
7	Alcoyano	6	3	1	2	0	10
8	Yeclano	6	2	3	1	1	9
9	Intercity	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Lorca Deportiva	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Elche II	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	Orihuela	6	2	1	3	-7	7
13	Mallorca II	6	1	3	2	-2	6
14	Atlético Baleares	6	1	3	2	-3	6
15	Poblense	6	2	0	4	-3	6
16	Peña Deportiva	6	1	1	4	-3	4
17	Valencia II	6	1	1	4	-5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	1	1	4	-7	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Espanyol II win, at 54.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.