· Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
Espanyol II vs Barbastro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.27 expected goals for Espanyol II and 0.85 for Barbastro, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Espanyol II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Espanyol II win
69.5% probability
Expected goals
2.27 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Espanyol II home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Barbastro away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Espanyol II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 18% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.27 goals for Espanyol II and 0.85 for Barbastro, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.4%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–08.7%
- 1–18.5%
Recent form
Espanyol II
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Peña Sport · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Calamocha · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SD Logroñés · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilassar Mar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnastic · 3-0 (W)
Barbastro
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UD Logroñés II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Utebo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Náxara · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona B · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Terrassa · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona B | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Osasuna II | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Ebro | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Espanyol II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Olot | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Manresa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Reddis | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 8 | Terrassa | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | UD Logroñés II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Girona II | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Utebo | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Tudelano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Peña Sport | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Barbastro | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 | Náxara | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 16 | Calamocha | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -12 | 3 |
| 17 | SD Logroñés | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | Arnedo | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Espanyol II win, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.