RCDE Stadium · Referee J. A. Gonzalez Esteban · Analysis updated 20:44 UTC
Espanyol vs Elche Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Espanyol and 0.85 for Elche, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Espanyol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Espanyol win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Espanyol home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Elche away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.3%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–010.7%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 55.5% vs market 43.7%, edge +11.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.7% | 55.5% | 1.80 | +11.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.1% | 73.8% | 1.36 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 4.40 | 21.0% | 21.3% | 4.69 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 78.6% | 78.7% | 1.27 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.3% | 26.2% | 3.82 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.75 | 52.7% | 52.5% | 1.90 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.95 | 48.3% | 47.5% | 2.11 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 56.3% | 44.5% | 2.25 | -11.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Espanyol
- 2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Elche · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla · 1-1 (D)
Elche
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Espanyol · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · Espanyol 1-3 Elche (La Liga)
- 2026-03-01T13:00:00.000Z · Espanyol 2-2 Elche (La Liga)
- 2025-10-25T14:15:00.000Z · Espanyol 1-0 Elche (La Liga)
- 2024-04-27T16:30:00.000Z · Espanyol 2-2 Elche (Segunda División)
- 2023-11-18T20:00:00.000Z · Espanyol 2-0 Elche (Segunda División)
- 2023-02-19T13:00:00.000Z · Espanyol 1-0 Elche (La Liga)
- 2022-10-23T12:00:00.000Z · Espanyol 2-2 Elche (La Liga)
- 2022-01-10T20:00:00.000Z · Espanyol 1-2 Elche (La Liga)
- 2021-10-23T16:30:00.000Z · Espanyol 2-2 Elche (La Liga)
- 2015-04-06T18:00:00.000Z · Espanyol 1-1 Elche (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Espanyol win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.