RCDE Stadium · Analysis updated 15:36 UTC
Espanyol vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Espanyol and 1.55 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Espanyol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Espanyol win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Espanyol home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rayo Vallecano away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Espanyol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 21% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Espanyol and 1.55 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 1–18.6%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–26.6%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Espanyol
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Elche · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna · 2-0 (W)
Rayo Vallecano
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-31T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 7 | Alaves | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Osasuna | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 11 | Levante | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Villarreal | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Getafe | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Espanyol | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 8 |
| 17 | Racing Santander | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Elche | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 19 | Valencia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 | Malaga | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Espanyol win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.