Estadi Nacional · Analysis updated 16:39 UTC
Esperança d'Andorra vs Inter Club d'Escaldes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Esperança d'Andorra and 1.85 for Inter Club d'Escaldes, a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives Inter Club d'Escaldes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Inter Club d'Escaldes win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Esperança d'Andorra home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Inter Club d'Escaldes away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inter Club d'Escaldes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 30% / 23% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Esperança d'Andorra and 1.85 for Inter Club d'Escaldes, a combined 3.27 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.2%
- 2–17.1%
- 0–17.0%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Esperança d'Andorra
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ordino · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ranger's · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Escaldes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Escaldes · 3-1 (W)
Inter Club d'Escaldes
- 2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Ordino · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodez · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ranger's · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Carroi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlètic Club d'Escaldes · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1a Divisió table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Santa Coloma | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 12 |
| 2 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 10 |
| 3 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 |
| 4 | Ranger's | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Ordino | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 6 | Esperança d'Andorra | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| 7 | Penya Encarnada | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 8 | Casa de Portugal | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 9 | Carroi | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 10 | Sporting Escaldes | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Inter Club d'Escaldes win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.