Mørdrup Idrætsanlæg · Analysis updated 18:39 UTC
Espergærde vs Frederikssund Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Espergærde and 1.50 for Frederikssund, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Frederikssund the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Espergærde home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Frederikssund to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 37% / 25% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Espergærde and 1.50 for Frederikssund, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–17.9%
- 1–07.6%
Recent form
Espergærde
- 2026-08-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Skjold Sæby · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs BSI · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Næstved II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-03-21T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Såby · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-03-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Avarta · 1-0 (W)
Frederikssund
Head-to-head
- 2025-11-01T13:00:00.000Z · Espergærde 2-0 Frederikssund (Denmark Series - Group 1)
- 2025-08-29T16:15:00.000Z · Espergærde 1-2 Frederikssund (Denmark Series - Group 1)
Denmark Series - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Avarta | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 40 |
| 2 | Glostrup | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 40 |
| 3 | Tårnby FF | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 30 |
| 4 | Frederikssund | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | -1 | 25 |
| 5 | Espergærde | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 24 |
| 6 | Såby | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 23 |
| 7 | LSF | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 | Herlev | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 22 |
| 9 | Næstved II | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -16 | 20 |
| 10 | AB Tårnby | 18 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -18 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.