Estádio Municipal José de Oliveira Bandeira · Analysis updated 05:00 UTC
Esporte Limoeiro vs Guarany de Sobral Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Esporte Limoeiro and 1.63 for Guarany de Sobral, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Guarany de Sobral the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Guarany de Sobral win
60.3% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Esporte Limoeiro home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Guarany de Sobral away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guarany de Sobral to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 15% / 24% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Esporte Limoeiro and 1.63 for Guarany de Sobral, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.3%
- 0–213.2%
- 1–111.0%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–28.9%
Recent form
Esporte Limoeiro
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Acopiara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Acopiara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Acopiara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Calouros do Ar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Palmacia · 3-0 (W)
Guarany de Sobral
- 2026-05-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Crato · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Itapipoca · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Crateús · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-02T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Caucaia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-04-21T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Uniclinic Atletico Clube · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · Esporte Limoeiro 0-0 Guarany de Sobral (Cearense - 3)
- 2025-06-28T20:00:00.000Z · Esporte Limoeiro 1-2 Guarany de Sobral (Cearense - 3)
Cearense - 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Real | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 2 | Acopiara | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Esporte Limoeiro | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Pacatuba | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Calouros do Ar | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 6 | Tianguá | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 7 | Palmacia | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guarany de Sobral win, at 60.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.