· Analysis updated 09:12 UTC
Esporte Limoeiro vs Palmacia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Esporte Limoeiro and 0.48 for Palmacia, a combined total of 1.63. That distribution gives Esporte Limoeiro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 26% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Esporte Limoeiro win
52.7% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Esporte Limoeiro home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Esporte Limoeiro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 32% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Esporte Limoeiro and 0.48 for Palmacia, a combined 1.63 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 22% and both teams to score at 26%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–022.6%
- 0–019.7%
- 2–013.0%
- 1–110.8%
- 0–19.4%
Recent form
Esporte Limoeiro
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Acopiara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Acopiara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Acopiara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Calouros do Ar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Palmacia · 3-0 (W)
Palmacia
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacatuba · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Esporte Limoeiro · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tianguá · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Vila Real · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Acopiara · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · Esporte Limoeiro 3-0 Palmacia (Cearense - 3)
Cearense - 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Real | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 2 | Acopiara | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Esporte Limoeiro | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Pacatuba | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Calouros do Ar | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 6 | Tianguá | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 7 | Palmacia | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Esporte Limoeiro win, at 52.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 26% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.