· Analysis updated 04:39 UTC
Essingen vs Ansbach Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.35 expected goals for Essingen and 2.70 for Ansbach, a combined total of 6.05. That distribution gives Essingen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 93% for over 2.5 goals and 89% for both teams to score, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Essingen win
51.9% probability
Expected goals
3.35 – 2.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Essingen home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ansbach away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Essingen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 16% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.35 goals for Essingen and 2.70 for Ansbach, a combined 6.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–25.4%
- 3–34.8%
- 2–24.8%
- 4–24.5%
- 2–34.3%
Recent form
Essingen
- 2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Backnang · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Normannia Gmünd · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Reutlingen · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FC 08 Villingen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Nöttingen · 2-1 (W)
Ansbach
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Unterhaching · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Greuther Fürth II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Schweinfurt 05 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nürnberg II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs TSV 1860 München · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Essingen win, at 51.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 89% and over 2.5 goals at 93%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.