Essingen vs Young Boys Reutlingen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Essingen and 2.08 for Young Boys Reutlingen, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Young Boys Reutlingen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Young Boys Reutlingen win

45.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 2.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Essingen home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Young Boys Reutlingen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Young Boys Reutlingen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 34% / 21% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Essingen and 2.08 for Young Boys Reutlingen, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Essingen win34%

Draw21%

Young Boys Reutlingen win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

1–28.1%
1–17.8%
2–27.2%
2–17.0%
1–35.6%

Recent form

Essingen

2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Backnang · 3-5 (L)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Normannia Gmünd · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Reutlingen · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FC 08 Villingen · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Nöttingen · 2-1 (W)

Young Boys Reutlingen

2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC 08 Villingen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Nöttingen · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Teningen · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Muhlhausen · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlsruhe II · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · Essingen 1-1 Young Boys Reutlingen (Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg)

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Oberachern	13	9	2	2	17	29
2	Backnang	13	8	4	1	17	28
3	FC 08 Villingen	13	8	2	3	8	26
4	Reutlingen	13	8	2	3	7	26
5	Bahlinger SC	13	6	5	2	5	23
6	Young Boys Reutlingen	13	6	4	3	9	22
7	FV Ravensburg	13	5	4	4	9	19
8	Karlsruhe II	12	5	4	3	1	19
9	1. FC Muhlhausen	13	5	3	5	-2	18
10	CFR Pforzheim	13	5	2	6	-3	17
11	FC Holzhausen	13	5	2	6	-3	17
12	Essingen	13	4	3	6	-5	15
13	TSV Singen	13	4	2	7	-8	14
14	Balingen	13	3	4	6	-3	13
15	Teningen	13	4	1	8	-11	13
16	FC Nöttingen	12	4	0	8	7	12
17	Türkspor Neckarsulm	13	3	0	10	-22	9
18	Normannia Gmünd	13	2	0	11	-23	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Young Boys Reutlingen win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.