Estac Troyes vs Le Havre Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.88 for Le Havre, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Le Havre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Le Havre win

50.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Estac Troyes home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Le Havre away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Estac Troyes win27%

Draw23%

Le Havre win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.2%
1–29.6%
0–17.8%
0–27.3%
2–16.6%

Recent form

Estac Troyes

2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Marseille · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dijon · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Angers · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-6 (L)

Le Havre

2026-10-10T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Boulogne · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Toulouse · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Angers · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2022-07-20T15:30:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 3-0 Le Havre (Friendlies Clubs)
2022-07-20T00:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 3-0 Le Havre (Friendlies Clubs)
2021-05-15T18:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 2-3 Le Havre (Ligue 2)
2020-08-24T18:45:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 2-0 Le Havre (Ligue 2)
2020-01-27T19:45:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 0-1 Le Havre (Ligue 2)
2019-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-2 Le Havre (Ligue 2)
2019-02-22T19:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 2-1 Le Havre (Ligue 2)
2018-10-31T20:05:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 0-2 Le Havre (Coupe de la Ligue)
2018-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-1 Le Havre (Ligue 2)
2017-01-27T19:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 2-1 Le Havre (Ligue 2)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
11	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
14	Le Mans	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Le Havre win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.