Stade de l'Aube · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Estac Troyes vs Lens Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.58 for Lens, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Lens the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lens win
51.6% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estac Troyes home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lens away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.3%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–29.7%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 50.7% vs market 40.6%, edge +10.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 40.6% | 50.7% | 1.97 | +10.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.80 | 51.3% | 51.6% | 1.94 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.95 | 48.1% | 48.4% | 2.07 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.70 | 25.0% | 25.2% | 3.97 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.22 | 76.9% | 76.8% | 1.30 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.0% | 74.8% | 1.34 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 3.90 | 23.7% | 23.2% | 4.31 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 59.4% | 49.3% | 2.03 | -10.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Estac Troyes
- 2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Marseille · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dijon · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Angers · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-6 (L)
Lens
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Standard Liege · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Le Mans · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Praha · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-04T20:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 2-4 Lens (Coupe de France)
- 2023-01-28T16:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-1 Lens (Ligue 1)
- 2022-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 0-1 Lens (Ligue 1)
- 2022-05-14T19:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-3 Lens (Ligue 1)
- 2021-11-05T20:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 0-4 Lens (Ligue 1)
- 2020-02-04T20:05:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 0-1 Lens (Ligue 2)
- 2019-08-24T13:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 2-0 Lens (Ligue 2)
- 2019-08-13T19:05:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-2 Lens (Coupe de la Ligue)
- 2019-01-28T19:45:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-0 Lens (Ligue 2)
- 2018-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 0-2 Lens (Ligue 2)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lens win, at 51.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.