Estac Troyes vs Lille Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.22 for Lille, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Estac Troyes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws roughly 48% of the time.

Model pick

Estac Troyes to Win

52.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.86 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Estac Troyes win52%

Draw23%

Lille win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.4%
2–19.7%
1–08.6%
2–08.0%
1–26.4%

Why the model likes this

Estac Troyes home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lille away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Estac Troyes

2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Panetolikos · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-31T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Chasselay MDA · 5-2 (W)
2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grenoble · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs RED Star FC 93 · 1-0 (W)

Lille

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Everton · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs OH Leuven · 6-3 (W)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Union St. Gilloise · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs RAAL La Louvière · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2023-06-03T19:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-1 Lille (Ligue 1)
2023-01-15T12:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-5 Lille (Ligue 1)
2023-01-08T19:45:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 0-2 Lille (Coupe de France)
2022-05-01T11:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 3-0 Lille (Ligue 1)
2021-12-04T18:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-2 Lille (Ligue 1)
2018-01-20T19:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-0 Lille (Ligue 1)
2017-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 2-2 Lille (Ligue 1)
2016-01-23T19:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 3-1 Lille (Ligue 1)
2015-11-21T19:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-1 Lille (Ligue 1)
2015-10-28T20:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-2 Lille (Coupe de la Ligue)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.