Stade de l'Aube · Analysis updated 21:46 UTC
Estac Troyes vs Lyon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 2.05 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Lyon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lyon win
70.2% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estac Troyes home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lyon away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–214.1%
- 0–113.8%
- 0–39.6%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–19.0%
Recent form
Estac Troyes
- 2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Marseille · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dijon · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Angers · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-6 (L)
Lyon
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Anderlecht · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Auxerre · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2023-02-04T18:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-3 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2022-08-19T19:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-4 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2022-01-16T16:05:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 0-1 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2021-09-22T19:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-3 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2018-05-06T14:30:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 0-3 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2017-10-22T15:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 0-5 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2016-01-09T16:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-4 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2015-10-31T19:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 0-1 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2014-02-05T19:55:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-2 Lyon (Coupe de la Ligue)
- 2013-01-12T16:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-2 Lyon (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lyon win, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.