Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 0.75 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Estac Troyes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Estac Troyes win

61.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 0.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Estac Troyes home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Strasbourg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Estac Troyes win61%

Draw23%

Strasbourg win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–014.4%
2–012.6%
1–110.8%
2–19.4%
0–08.2%

Recent form

Estac Troyes

2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Marseille · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dijon · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Angers · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-6 (L)

Strasbourg

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nice · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Estac Troyes · 6-2 (W)
2026-08-29T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 2-6 Strasbourg (Ligue 1)
2023-05-21T13:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-1 Strasbourg (Ligue 1)
2023-01-02T14:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 3-2 Strasbourg (Ligue 1)
2022-04-17T13:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-1 Strasbourg (Ligue 1)
2021-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-1 Strasbourg (Ligue 1)
2018-02-11T14:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-2 Strasbourg (Ligue 1)
2017-11-04T19:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 3-0 Strasbourg (Ligue 1)
2017-02-07T20:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 4-0 Strasbourg (Ligue 2)
2016-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 0-2 Strasbourg (Ligue 2)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
11	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
14	Le Mans	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Estac Troyes win, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.