Nuovo Stadio Comunale · Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
Este vs Luparense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Este and 1.33 for Luparense, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives Luparense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Luparense win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Este home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Luparense away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Luparense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 18% / 29% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.65 goals for Este and 1.33 for Luparense, a combined 1.98 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.4%
- 0–013.8%
- 0–212.2%
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.0%
Recent form
Este
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandona · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cjarlins Muzane · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Clodiense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Obermais · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brian Lignano · 2-0 (W)
Luparense
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brian Lignano · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Clodiense · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Schio · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Virtus Bolzano · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mestre · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luparense | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 17 |
| 2 | Cjarlins Muzane | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Sandona | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Campodarsego | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Clodiense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Bassano Virtus | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | LME | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Mestre | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Legnago Salus | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Conegliano | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | FC Obermais | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Calvi Noale | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Este | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Altavilla | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 15 | Triestina | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Virtus Bolzano | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -16 | 6 |
| 17 | Schio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Brian Lignano | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Luparense win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.