· Analysis updated 16:21 UTC
Este vs Triestina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Este and 0.90 for Triestina, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Este the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.3% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Este home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Triestina away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Este to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 29% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Este and 0.90 for Triestina, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.6%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–011.6%
- 0–110.5%
- 2–09.1%
Recent form
Este
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs LME · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Luparense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Caldiero Terme · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Conegliano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandona · 0-0 (D)
Triestina
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Campodarsego · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Calvi Noale · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Altavilla · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-25T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Vicenza Virtus · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-04-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Albinoleffe · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luparense | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 18 |
| 2 | Cjarlins Muzane | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Clodiense | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Sandona | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Legnago Salus | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Campodarsego | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Bassano Virtus | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | LME | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Mestre | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Este | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Conegliano | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | Altavilla | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 13 | Triestina | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Virtus Bolzano | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -15 | 9 |
| 15 | Calvi Noale | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | FC Obermais | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 17 | Schio | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 18 | Brian Lignano | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.