Esteghlal FC vs Al Sadd Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.39 expected goals for Esteghlal FC and 0.81 for Al Sadd, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives Esteghlal FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Esteghlal FC win

72.5% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.39 – 0.81

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Al Sadd away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Esteghlal FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 17% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.39 goals for Esteghlal FC and 0.81 for Al Sadd, a combined 3.19 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 50%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Esteghlal FC win73%

Draw17%

Al Sadd win11%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

28%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

2–011.7%
1–09.8%
2–19.4%
3–09.3%
1–17.9%

Recent form

Esteghlal FC

Al Sadd

2026-09-14T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Esteghlal FC · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Sailiya · 6-3 (W)
2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Gharafa · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Gharafa · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Qatar SC · 6-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

AFC Champions League Elite table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al Ain	2	2	0	0	7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	1	1	0	2	4
6	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Neftchi	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Al-Nassr	2	1	0	1	-2	3
9	Pakhtakor	2	0	2	0	0	2
10	Al Shamal	2	0	2	0	0	2
11	Al-Ittihad FC	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Tractor Sazi	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Al-Gharafa	2	0	0	2	-2	0
14	Al-Wasl FC	2	0	0	2	-3	0
15	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	0	0	2	-4	0
16	Al Sadd	2	0	0	2	-5	0
1	Kashima	2	2	0	0	7	6
2	Gamba Osaka	2	2	0	0	5	6
3	Vissel Kobe	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Beijing Guoan	2	2	0	0	3	6
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	2	1	1	0	2	4
6	Johor Darul Takzim FC	2	1	1	0	2	4
7	Daejeon Citizen	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Kashiwa Reysol	2	1	0	1	3	3
9	Kyoto Sanga	2	1	0	1	0	3
10	Jeonbuk Motors	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Buriram United	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Ratchaburi	2	0	0	2	-3	0
13	Công An Nhân Dân	2	0	0	2	-4	0
14	Pohang Steelers	2	0	0	2	-4	0
15	Port FC	2	0	0	2	-5	0
16	Newcastle Jets	2	0	0	2	-8	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Esteghlal FC win, at 72.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.