Azadi Stadium · Analysis updated 06:01 UTC
Esteghlal FC vs Sepahan FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Esteghlal FC and 0.63 for Sepahan FC, a combined total of 1.64. That distribution gives Esteghlal FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
77.5% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sepahan FC away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Esteghlal FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 34% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Esteghlal FC and 0.63 for Sepahan FC, a combined 1.64 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.5%
- 0–019.4%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–112.3%
- 2–09.8%
Recent form
Esteghlal FC
Sepahan FC
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Esteghlal Khuzestan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanat Naft · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gol Gohar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Esteghlal FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tractor Sazi · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · Esteghlal FC 2-0 Sepahan FC (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2026-01-01T13:30:00.000Z · Esteghlal FC 2-1 Sepahan FC (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2025-05-15T14:30:00.000Z · Esteghlal FC 1-3 Sepahan FC (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2025-01-02T14:30:00.000Z · Esteghlal FC 1-1 Sepahan FC (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2024-02-27T13:45:00.000Z · Esteghlal FC 1-0 Sepahan FC (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2023-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · Esteghlal FC 0-1 Sepahan FC (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2023-01-19T13:00:00.000Z · Esteghlal FC 1-2 Sepahan FC (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2022-08-12T14:30:00.000Z · Esteghlal FC 0-2 Sepahan FC (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2022-05-04T14:00:00.000Z · Esteghlal FC 1-1 Sepahan FC (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2021-12-14T12:30:00.000Z · Esteghlal FC 1-0 Sepahan FC (Persian Gulf Pro League)
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persepolis FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 20 |
| 2 | Tractor Sazi | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Esteghlal FC | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | Sepahan FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Foolad FC | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Aluminium Arak | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Kheybar Khorramabad | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Gol Gohar | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Fajr Sepasi | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Chadormalu SC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Paykan | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Malavan | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | ZOB Ahan | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Sanat Naft | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 18 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 77.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.