Ghadir Stadium · Analysis updated 21:30 UTC
Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Nassaji Mazandaran Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.69 expected goals for Esteghlal Khuzestan and 0.90 for Nassaji Mazandaran, a combined total of 1.59. That distribution gives Nassaji Mazandaran the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 21% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
73.7% probability
Expected goals
0.69 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Esteghlal Khuzestan home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nassaji Mazandaran away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nassaji Mazandaran to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 26% / 35% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.69 goals for Esteghlal Khuzestan and 0.90 for Nassaji Mazandaran, a combined 1.59 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–020.4%
- 0–118.4%
- 1–014.1%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–28.3%
Recent form
Esteghlal Khuzestan
- 2026-09-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Tractor Sazi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sepahan FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-01T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Chadormalu SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Paykan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nassaji Mazandaran · 1-1 (D)
Nassaji Mazandaran
- 2026-10-18T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Foolad FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-08T12:30:00.000Z · H vs ZOB Ahan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Mes Shahr-e Babak · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kheybar Khorramabad · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Malavan · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persepolis FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 20 |
| 2 | Tractor Sazi | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Esteghlal FC | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | Sepahan FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Foolad FC | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Aluminium Arak | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Kheybar Khorramabad | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Gol Gohar | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Fajr Sepasi | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Chadormalu SC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Paykan | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Malavan | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | ZOB Ahan | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Sanat Naft | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 18 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 21%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.