Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez · Analysis updated 13:07 UTC
Estepona vs Águilas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Estepona and 1.17 for Águilas, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Águilas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.6% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estepona home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Águilas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 32% / 29% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Estepona and 1.17 for Águilas, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.7%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–010.8%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Estepona
- 2026-05-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid III · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid III · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeclano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Águilas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-19T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Linares Deportivo · 3-2 (W)
Águilas
- 2026-10-17T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Ibiza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Huesca · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Cartagena · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hércules · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Algeciras · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis II | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 2 | Recreativo Huelva | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Ciudad de Lucena | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Badajoz | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Don Benito | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Estepona | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Linares Deportivo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Puente Genil | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Tenerife II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Sevilla Atletico | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Sanluqueño | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Xerez | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Marbella | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Atlético Central | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Tamaraceite | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Las Palmas II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Antoniano | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.