Estepona vs Real Madrid III Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Estepona and 2.00 for Real Madrid III, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Estepona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

60.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Estepona home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Real Madrid III away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estepona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 21% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Estepona and 2.00 for Real Madrid III, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Estepona win40%

Draw21%

Real Madrid III win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals57%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

1–17.3%
1–27.3%
2–17.3%
2–27.3%
1–34.9%

Recent form

Estepona

2026-05-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid III · 3-1 (W)
2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid III · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeclano · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Águilas · 2-1 (W)
2026-04-19T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Linares Deportivo · 3-2 (W)

Real Madrid III

2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Conquense · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RSD Alcalá · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tordesillas · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Paso · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CD Coria	4	3	1	0	5	10
2	UD Logroñés	4	3	1	0	4	10
3	UD Ourense	4	3	1	0	4	10
4	Real Jaén	4	3	0	1	2	9
5	Águilas	4	2	2	0	2	8
6	Poblense	4	2	2	0	2	8
7	SD Logroñés	2	2	0	0	2	6
8	Real Oviedo II	4	2	0	2	-2	6
9	SS Reyes	4	1	2	1	1	5
10	Estepona	2	1	1	0	2	4
11	Atlético Baleares	4	1	1	2	1	4
12	Deportivo Alavés II	2	1	0	1	0	3
13	Xerez	2	0	2	0	0	2
14	Conquense	4	0	2	2	-3	2
15	Reddis	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Deportiva Minera	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Real Madrid III	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Alcoyano	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Coruxo	2	0	1	1	-3	1
20	Castellón II	2	0	0	2	-2	0
21	Utebo	2	0	0	2	-2	0
22	Numancia	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Tudelano	2	0	0	2	-2	0
24	Getafe II	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.