Estepona vs Tamaraceite Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.17 expected goals for Estepona and 0.95 for Tamaraceite, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Estepona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Estepona win

65.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.17 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Estepona home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tamaraceite away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estepona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 20% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.17 goals for Estepona and 0.95 for Tamaraceite, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Estepona win65%

Draw20%

Tamaraceite win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

35%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

2–010.4%
2–19.9%
1–09.6%
1–19.1%
3–07.5%

Recent form

Estepona

2026-05-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid III · 3-1 (W)
2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid III · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeclano · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Águilas · 2-1 (W)
2026-04-19T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Linares Deportivo · 3-2 (W)

Tamaraceite

2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mijas Las Lagunas · 2-6 (L)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo Huelva · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanluqueño · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla Atletico · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Tenerife · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Betis II	6	4	2	0	8	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	Ciudad de Lucena	6	3	2	1	5	11
4	Badajoz	6	3	2	1	2	11
5	Tenerife II	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Estepona	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Don Benito	6	3	1	2	1	10
8	Linares Deportivo	6	3	1	2	0	10
9	Mijas Las Lagunas	6	2	3	1	2	9
10	Sevilla Atletico	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Puente Genil	6	2	1	3	1	7
12	Sanluqueño	6	1	4	1	0	7
13	Xerez	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Atlético Central	6	2	0	4	-3	6
15	Marbella	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Las Palmas II	6	1	2	3	-7	5
17	Tamaraceite	6	1	0	5	-8	3
18	Antoniano	6	0	2	4	-6	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Estepona win, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.