Parnu Rannastaadion · Referee P. Ilic · Analysis updated 04:48 UTC
Estonia U21 vs France U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Estonia U21 and 2.68 for France U21, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives France U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
France U21 win
72.8% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 2.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
France U21 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates France U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 12% / 16% / 73% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Estonia U21 and 2.68 for France U21, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 59%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
27%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–29.1%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–38.1%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–16.8%
Recent form
Estonia U21
France U21
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Estonia U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Japan U18 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ukraine U18 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Iceland U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Austria U18 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is France U21 win, at 72.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.