Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota · Referee M. Nogueira · Analysis updated 23:57 UTC
Estoril vs Benfica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Estoril and 1.78 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Benfica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Benfica win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–06.2%
Why the model likes this
Estoril home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benfica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 23% / 23% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Estoril and 1.78 for Benfica, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Recent form
Estoril
- 2026-08-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nacional · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-07T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Os Belenenses · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 0-2 (L)
Benfica
- 2026-08-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-07-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC ST. Gallen · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Os Belenenses · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arouca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Maritimo | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Nacional | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Famalicao | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 13 | Estoril | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 14 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.