Campo Municipal do Concello da Estrada · Analysis updated 04:42 UTC
Estradense vs Viveiro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Estradense and 0.88 for Viveiro, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Estradense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.1% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estradense home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Viveiro away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.1%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.6%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–09.0%
Recent form
Estradense
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Villalbés · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Boiro · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtiga · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Coruña · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Arteixo · 1-1 (D)
Viveiro
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Villalbés · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Boiro · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtiga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Coruña · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Arteixo · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T15:30:00.000Z · Estradense 2-0 Viveiro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-12-20T15:15:00.000Z · Estradense 3-0 Viveiro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-03-09T16:30:00.000Z · Estradense 2-0 Viveiro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2024-10-27T11:00:00.000Z · Estradense 4-3 Viveiro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2024-04-21T10:00:00.000Z · Estradense 0-1 Viveiro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-12-03T16:00:00.000Z · Estradense 2-2 Viveiro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-03-12T11:00:00.000Z · Estradense 0-2 Viveiro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2022-11-20T11:00:00.000Z · Estradense 1-0 Viveiro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2022-03-26T16:00:00.000Z · Estradense 1-1 Viveiro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2021-11-21T11:00:00.000Z · Estradense 0-1 Viveiro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boiro | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 19 |
| 2 | Sarriana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | Lalin | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Antela | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Estradense | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Atlético Arteixo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Barco | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Villalbés | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Portonovo SD | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Alondras | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Silva | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Pontevedra II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 13 | Celtiga | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 14 | Coruña | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Somozas | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Arenteiro | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Celta de Vigo III | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 18 | Viveiro | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.