· Analysis updated 12:43 UTC
Estradense vs Viveiro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Estradense and 0.86 for Viveiro, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Estradense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Estradense win
50.0% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estradense home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Viveiro away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.5%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–010.3%
- 0–010.2%
- 2–18.9%
Recent form
Estradense
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Villalbés · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Boiro · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtiga · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Coruña · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Arteixo · 1-1 (D)
Viveiro
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Villalbés · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Boiro · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtiga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Coruña · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Arteixo · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T15:30:00.000Z · Estradense 2-0 Viveiro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-12-20T15:15:00.000Z · Estradense 3-0 Viveiro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-03-09T16:30:00.000Z · Estradense 2-0 Viveiro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2024-10-27T11:00:00.000Z · Estradense 4-3 Viveiro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2024-04-21T10:00:00.000Z · Estradense 0-1 Viveiro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-12-03T16:00:00.000Z · Estradense 2-2 Viveiro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-03-12T11:00:00.000Z · Estradense 0-2 Viveiro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2022-11-20T11:00:00.000Z · Estradense 1-0 Viveiro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2022-03-26T16:00:00.000Z · Estradense 1-1 Viveiro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2021-11-21T11:00:00.000Z · Estradense 0-1 Viveiro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boiro | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Sarriana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | Lalin | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Barco | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Antela | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Portonovo SD | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Silva | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Villalbés | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Alondras | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Celtiga | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Estradense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Atlético Arteixo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Coruña | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Pontevedra II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 15 | Somozas | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo III | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Viveiro | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Arenteiro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Estradense win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.