· Analysis updated 19:50 UTC
Estrela Calheta vs Alpendorada Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Estrela Calheta and 1.63 for Alpendorada, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Alpendorada the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Alpendorada win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estrela Calheta home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Alpendorada away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alpendorada to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 28% / 25% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Estrela Calheta and 1.63 for Alpendorada, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–27.8%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
Estrela Calheta
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Castro Daire · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cinfães · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vianense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ovarense · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Machico · 0-0 (D)
Alpendorada
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mação · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Machico · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanjoanense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rebordosa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Camacha · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Machico | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 3 | Camacha | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Castro Daire | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Sanjoanense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | União Lamas | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 7 | Salgueiros | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Florgrade | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 9 | Cinfães | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Estrela Calheta | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 11 | Beira-Mar | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Alpendorada | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | Guarda | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | Sousense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alpendorada win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.