Estrela Calheta vs Ovarense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Estrela Calheta and 1.97 for Ovarense, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Ovarense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ovarense win

66.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.73 – 1.97

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Estrela Calheta home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ovarense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 13% / 21% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.73 goals for Estrela Calheta and 1.97 for Ovarense, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 45%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Estrela Calheta win13%

Draw21%

Ovarense win67%

Double chance 1X

34%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

87%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

0–113.2%
0–213.0%
1–19.7%
1–29.5%
0–38.5%

Recent form

Estrela Calheta

2026-10-25T10:30:00.000Z · H vs União Lamas · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sousense · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Castro Daire · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cinfães · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vianense · 1-3 (L)

Ovarense

2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Beira-Mar · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Os Marialvas · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela Calheta · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sousense · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs União Lamas · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · Estrela Calheta 0-3 Ovarense (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ovarense	6	5	1	0	10	16
2	Machico	6	4	2	0	8	14
3	Camacha	6	4	2	0	6	14
4	Florgrade	6	3	1	2	0	10
5	Castro Daire	6	2	3	1	2	9
6	Sanjoanense	6	2	2	2	0	8
7	União Lamas	6	2	2	2	-2	8
8	Salgueiros	6	1	4	1	-1	7
9	Cinfães	6	1	3	2	-1	6
10	Beira-Mar	6	0	5	1	-2	5
11	Alpendorada	6	1	2	3	-3	5
12	Estrela Calheta	6	1	2	3	-5	5
13	Sousense	6	0	2	4	-7	2
14	Guarda	6	0	1	5	-5	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ovarense win, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.