· Analysis updated 17:35 UTC
Estrela Calheta vs Vianense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Estrela Calheta and 2.01 for Vianense, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Vianense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vianense win
56.1% probability
Expected goals
1.21 – 2.01
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estrela Calheta home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Vianense away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vianense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 23% / 21% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.21 goals for Estrela Calheta and 2.01 for Vianense, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 0–28.1%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–36.6%
Recent form
Estrela Calheta
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Castro Daire · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cinfães · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vianense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ovarense · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Machico · 0-0 (D)
Vianense
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leixoes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Paredes · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela Calheta · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Varzim · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacos Ferreira · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vianense win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.