· Analysis updated 10:46 UTC
Estrela do Norte vs Linhares Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Estrela do Norte and 0.90 for Linhares, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Estrela do Norte the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.2% probability
Expected goals
1.19 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estrela do Norte home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Linhares away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estrela do Norte to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 30% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.19 goals for Estrela do Norte and 0.90 for Linhares, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.7%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.3%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–08.7%
Recent form
Estrela do Norte
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Linhares · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Audax São Mateus · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Audax São Mateus · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Brasil ES · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tupy · 4-0 (W)
Linhares
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela do Norte · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T22:40:00.000Z · H vs Rive · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Rive · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs CTE Colatina · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T22:30:00.000Z · H vs GEL · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Capixaba B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estrela do Norte | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Linhares | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 18 |
| 3 | Rive | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Audax São Mateus | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 5 | GEL | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Doze | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 7 | Tupy | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Sport Brasil ES | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | CTE Colatina | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -28 | 1 |
| 10 | Pinheiros | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.