· Analysis updated 02:39 UTC
Estrela do Norte vs Sport Brasil ES Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.11 expected goals for Estrela do Norte and 0.53 for Sport Brasil ES, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Estrela do Norte the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Estrela do Norte win
74.3% probability
Expected goals
2.11 – 0.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estrela do Norte home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sport Brasil ES away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estrela do Norte to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 18% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.11 goals for Estrela do Norte and 0.53 for Sport Brasil ES, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–015.9%
- 1–015.0%
- 3–011.2%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–18.0%
Recent form
Estrela do Norte
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Linhares · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Audax São Mateus · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Audax São Mateus · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Brasil ES · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tupy · 4-0 (W)
Sport Brasil ES
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Estrela do Norte · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rive · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tupy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Pinheiros · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela do Norte · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Capixaba B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estrela do Norte | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Linhares | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 18 |
| 3 | Rive | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Audax São Mateus | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 5 | GEL | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Doze | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 7 | Tupy | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Sport Brasil ES | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | CTE Colatina | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -28 | 1 |
| 10 | Pinheiros | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Estrela do Norte win, at 74.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.