· Referee J. R. Verissimo · Analysis updated 21:42 UTC
Estrela vs Al-Nassr Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Estrela and 1.08 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Estrela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estrela home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Nassr away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estrela to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 29% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Estrela and 1.08 for Al-Nassr, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–111.3%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Estrela
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Fazendense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 3-3 (D)
Al-Nassr
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Diriyah · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ain · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Khaleej Saihat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Abha · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ittihad FC · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · Estrela 4-2 Al-Nassr (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.