· Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
Estrela vs Portimonense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Estrela and 0.80 for Portimonense, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Estrela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Estrela win
60.0% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estrela home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Portimonense away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estrela to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 23% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Estrela and 0.80 for Portimonense, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 2–012.0%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Estrela
- 2026-10-11T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-10T19:15:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 2-2 (D)
Portimonense
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Castro Daire · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tondela · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs União de Leiria · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Leixoes · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica B · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Estrela win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.