· Analysis updated 17:50 UTC
Estrella Roja vs Juticalpa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Estrella Roja and 0.65 for Juticalpa, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Estrella Roja the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Estrella Roja win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Juticalpa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estrella Roja to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 26% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Estrella Roja and 0.65 for Juticalpa, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 37%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.6%
- 2–013.0%
- 0–011.9%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–18.4%
Recent form
Estrella Roja
Juticalpa
- 2026-10-17T23:15:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Choloma · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T01:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Marathon · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-14T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Independiente · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Génesis · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Espana | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | CD Olimpia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | CD Marathon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | CD Motagua | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Olancho | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Génesis | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Atletico Independiente | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | Estrella Roja | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Lobos Upnfm | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Platense FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 8 |
| 11 | Atlético Choloma | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Estrella Roja win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.