· Analysis updated 07:02 UTC
Estrella vs Caiquetio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Estrella and 2.43 for Caiquetio, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Caiquetio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Caiquetio win
53.4% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 2.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Caiquetio away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Caiquetio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 27% / 19% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Estrella and 2.43 for Caiquetio, a combined 4.15 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 75%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.0%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–16.6%
- 1–36.5%
- 2–15.7%
Recent form
Estrella
Caiquetio
- 2026-10-26T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Nacional · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-04T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Unistars · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-25T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Brazil Juniors · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-21T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrella · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division di Honor table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Caiquetio win, at 53.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.