· Analysis updated 06:18 UTC
Estrella vs Sporting Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Estrella and 1.50 for Sporting, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Sporting the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sporting win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 25% / 26% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Estrella and 1.50 for Sporting, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 49%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.3%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–29.2%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Estrella
Sporting
- 2026-10-26T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Caiquetio · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Britannia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-16T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Dakota · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-10T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Britannia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z · H vs La Fama · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division di Honor table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.