Estadio Metropolitano de Merida · Referee M. Rosales · Analysis updated 06:55 UTC
Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Puerto Cabello Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Estudiantes de Merida FC and 1.23 for Puerto Cabello, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Puerto Cabello the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.1% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estudiantes de Merida FC home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Puerto Cabello away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Puerto Cabello to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 33% / 28% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Estudiantes de Merida FC and 1.23 for Puerto Cabello, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.0%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Estudiantes de Merida FC
- 2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Trujillanos FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Tachira FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Carabobo FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-03T22:00:00.000Z · H vs UCV · 1-1 (D)
Puerto Cabello
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Trujillanos FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Portuguesa FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Tachira FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Carabobo FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.