Estadio Metropolitano de Merida · Referee J. Valenzuela · Analysis updated 03:59 UTC
Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Trujillanos FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.52 expected goals for Estudiantes de Merida FC and 1.01 for Trujillanos FC, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Estudiantes de Merida FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Estudiantes de Merida FC win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estudiantes de Merida FC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trujillanos FC away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estudiantes de Merida FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.52 goals for Estudiantes de Merida FC and 1.01 for Trujillanos FC, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–012.1%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–18.1%
Recent form
Estudiantes de Merida FC
- 2026-10-21T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Caracas FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Metropolitanos FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Monagas SC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Trujillanos FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa FC · 1-2 (L)
Trujillanos FC
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Guaira · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Zuliano · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Puerto Cabello · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Urena SC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Merida FC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Estudiantes de Merida FC win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.