Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Zamora FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Estudiantes de Merida FC and 0.91 for Zamora FC, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Estudiantes de Merida FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Estudiantes de Merida FC win

61.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.92 – 0.91

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Estudiantes de Merida FC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zamora FC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estudiantes de Merida FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 22% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Estudiantes de Merida FC and 0.91 for Zamora FC, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Estudiantes de Merida FC win61%

Draw22%

Zamora FC win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–011.3%
2–010.9%
1–110.3%
2–19.9%
3–07.0%

Recent form

Estudiantes de Merida FC

2026-10-21T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Caracas FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-18T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Metropolitanos FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Monagas SC · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Trujillanos FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa FC · 1-2 (L)

Zamora FC

2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Atletico Barinas · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Metropolitanos FC · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Monagas SC · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Trujillanos FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-09T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Frontera · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Metropolitanos FC	26	17	6	3	26	57
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	26	15	6	5	18	51
3	Deportivo La Guaira	26	12	8	6	13	44
4	Carabobo FC	26	10	11	5	14	41
5	Puerto Cabello	26	10	10	6	9	40
6	Portuguesa FC	26	9	12	5	10	39
7	UCV	26	11	6	9	2	39
8	Estudiantes de Merida FC	26	10	7	9	2	37
9	Caracas FC	26	7	11	8	-3	32
10	Monagas SC	26	8	5	13	-8	29
11	Zamora FC	26	6	7	13	-15	25
12	Rayo Zuliano	26	7	4	15	-21	25
13	Trujillanos FC	26	4	6	16	-23	18
14	Anzoátegui FC	26	4	5	17	-24	17
1	Deportivo La Guaira	13	7	6	0	9	27
2	Metropolitanos FC	13	7	4	2	7	25
3	Deportivo Tachira FC	13	7	3	3	5	24
4	UCV	13	7	2	4	4	23
5	Portuguesa FC	13	5	5	3	8	20
6	Estudiantes de Merida FC	13	6	2	5	3	20
7	Carabobo FC	13	4	7	2	9	19
8	Puerto Cabello	13	4	5	4	2	17
9	Zamora FC	13	4	5	4	0	17
10	Caracas FC	13	3	6	4	-2	15
11	Rayo Zuliano	13	4	2	7	-10	14
12	Monagas SC	13	3	2	8	-8	11
13	Anzoátegui FC	13	2	3	8	-10	9
14	Trujillanos FC	13	0	4	9	-17	4
1	Puerto Cabello	6	3	1	2	1	10
1	Carabobo FC	6	3	2	1	5	11
2	Portuguesa FC	6	2	2	2	-1	8
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	6	3	2	1	3	11
3	Deportivo La Guaira	6	1	4	1	0	7
3	Metropolitanos FC	6	2	2	2	-2	8
4	UCV	6	1	3	2	0	6
4	Estudiantes de Merida FC	6	1	0	5	-6	3
1	Metropolitanos FC	13	10	2	1	19	32
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	13	8	3	2	13	27
3	Puerto Cabello	13	6	5	2	7	23
4	Carabobo FC	13	6	4	3	5	22
5	Portuguesa FC	13	4	7	2	2	19
6	Monagas SC	13	5	3	5	0	18
7	Deportivo La Guaira	13	5	2	6	4	17
8	Caracas FC	13	4	5	4	-1	17
9	Estudiantes de Merida FC	13	4	5	4	-1	17
10	UCV	13	4	4	5	-2	16
11	Trujillanos FC	13	4	2	7	-6	14
12	Rayo Zuliano	13	3	2	8	-11	11
13	Anzoátegui FC	13	2	2	9	-14	8
14	Zamora FC	13	2	2	9	-15	8
1	Carabobo FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo Tachira FC	1	1	0	0	1	3
2	Portuguesa FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Puerto Cabello	1	1	0	0	1	3
3	Deportivo La Guaira	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Caracas FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
4	Metropolitanos FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Monagas SC	1	0	0	1	-1	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Estudiantes de Merida FC win, at 61.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.