Antonio Candini · Referee F. Echenique · Analysis updated 02:03 UTC
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Atletico Tucuman Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.94 expected goals for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and 1.01 for Atletico Tucuman, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Atletico Tucuman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.5% probability
Expected goals
0.94 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Tucuman away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Tucuman to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 33% / 31% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.94 goals for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and 1.01 for Atletico Tucuman, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.4%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.5%
- 1–013.4%
- 0–27.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.57 | 58.9% | 61.3% | 1.63 | +2.4 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.12 | 84.3% | 86.6% | 1.15 | +2.3 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.40 | 67.4% | 69.0% | 1.45 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Away | 2.65 | 35.2% | 36.2% | 2.76 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.95 | 31.7% | 32.5% | 3.08 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 68.4% | 68.7% | 1.46 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.38 | 67.4% | 67.5% | 1.48 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.45 | 64.2% | 63.8% | 1.57 | -0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.90 | 32.6% | 31.0% | 3.23 | -1.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.82 | 33.1% | 31.3% | 3.19 | -1.8 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 6.00 | 15.7% | 13.4% | 7.46 | -2.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.25 | 41.1% | 38.7% | 2.58 | -2.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs River Plate · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Belgrano Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
Atletico Tucuman
- 2026-10-24T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Tigre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.