Antonio Candini · Referee B. Ferreyra · Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.77 expected goals for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and 0.93 for Sarmiento Junin, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives Sarmiento Junin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.4% probability
Expected goals
0.77 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sarmiento Junin away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sarmiento Junin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 29% / 34% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.77 goals for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and 0.93 for Sarmiento Junin, a combined 1.70 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–018.3%
- 0–117.0%
- 1–014.1%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–27.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.55 (model 67.5% vs market 59.7%, edge +7.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.55 | 59.7% | 67.5% | 1.48 | +7.8 |
| Match result | Home | 3.25 | 28.1% | 28.6% | 3.50 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.50 | 62.0% | 62.5% | 1.60 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.70 | 33.8% | 33.9% | 2.95 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.30 | 71.6% | 71.4% | 1.40 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.40 | 66.4% | 66.1% | 1.51 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 2.40 | 38.1% | 37.5% | 2.67 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.30 | 40.3% | 32.5% | 3.08 | -7.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs River Plate · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Belgrano Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Junin · 0-2 (L)
Sarmiento Junin
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Belgrano Cordoba · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Santa Fe · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-04T19:45:00.000Z · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0-2 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2026-03-03T22:00:00.000Z · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0-1 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-01-16T22:10:00.000Z · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1-1 Sarmiento Junin (Primera Nacional)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.