Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi · Referee Y. Perez · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Estudiantes L.P. and 0.73 for Gimnasia M., a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Estudiantes L.P. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Estudiantes L.P. win
54.9% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estudiantes L.P. home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnasia M. away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estudiantes L.P. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 27% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Estudiantes L.P. and 0.73 for Gimnasia M., a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.3%
- 2–012.0%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–18.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 60.1% vs market 53.3%, edge +6.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.75 | 53.3% | 60.1% | 1.66 | +6.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 73.5% | 1.36 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.2% | 18.6% | 5.38 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 45.0% | 45.2% | 2.21 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.7% | 26.6% | 3.76 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.65 | 55.1% | 54.9% | 1.82 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 82.2% | 81.5% | 1.23 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 46.7% | 39.9% | 2.51 | -6.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Estudiantes L.P.
- 2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia M. · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Lanus · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Corinthians · 1-0 (W)
Gimnasia M.
- 2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes L.P. · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Riestra · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Defensa Y Justicia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Independiente · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-18T00:15:00.000Z · Estudiantes L.P. 2-1 Gimnasia M. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Estudiantes L.P. win, at 54.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.