Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi · Referee J. Pafundi · Analysis updated 21:38 UTC
Estudiantes L.P. vs Newells Old Boys Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Estudiantes L.P. and 0.76 for Newells Old Boys, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Estudiantes L.P. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Estudiantes L.P. win
55.9% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estudiantes L.P. home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Newells Old Boys away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estudiantes L.P. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 26% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Estudiantes L.P. and 0.76 for Newells Old Boys, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.4%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.8%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Away | 5.60 | 16.7% | 18.4% | 5.43 | +1.7 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.20 | 78.3% | 79.9% | 1.25 | +1.6 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.62 | 57.0% | 58.2% | 1.72 | +1.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.60 | 59.0% | 59.6% | 1.68 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.68 | 55.7% | 55.9% | 1.79 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.14 | 81.5% | 81.6% | 1.23 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.3% | 74.3% | 1.35 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 44.2% | 44.1% | 2.27 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.30 | 41.0% | 40.4% | 2.48 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.15 | 43.0% | 41.8% | 2.39 | -1.2 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.33 | 21.7% | 20.1% | 4.98 | -1.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 27.5% | 25.7% | 3.89 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Estudiantes L.P.
- 2026-10-23T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia M. · 3-0 (W)
Newells Old Boys
- 2026-10-19T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia M. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanus · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Velez Sarsfield · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Estudiantes L.P. win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.