· Analysis updated 10:02 UTC
Estudiantes La Plata Res vs Central Córdoba SdE Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Estudiantes La Plata Res and 0.72 for Central Córdoba SdE Res., a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Estudiantes La Plata Res the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Estudiantes La Plata Res win
67.5% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estudiantes La Plata Res home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Central Córdoba SdE Res. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estudiantes La Plata Res to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 20% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Estudiantes La Plata Res and 0.72 for Central Córdoba SdE Res., a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.2%
- 2–013.2%
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.8%
Recent form
Estudiantes La Plata Res
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Res. · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferro 2 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors Res. · 2-3 (L)
Central Córdoba SdE Res.
- 2026-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracán Res. · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-27T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferro 2 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-13T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Res. · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Estudiantes La Plata Res win, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.