· Analysis updated 08:37 UTC
Estudiantes La Plata Res vs Colón Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Estudiantes La Plata Res and 0.71 for Colón Res., a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives Estudiantes La Plata Res the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Estudiantes La Plata Res win
70.4% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 0.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estudiantes La Plata Res home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Colón Res. away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estudiantes La Plata Res to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 19% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Estudiantes La Plata Res and 0.71 for Colón Res., a combined 2.84 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.3%
- 1–012.4%
- 3–09.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.8%
Recent form
Estudiantes La Plata Res
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgrano Córdoba Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanús Res. · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newell's Old Boys Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa y Justicia Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. · 0-2 (L)
Colón Res.
- 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Newell's Old Boys Res. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Quilmes 2 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa y Justicia Res. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes La Plata Res · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Estudiantes La Plata Res win, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.