· Analysis updated 09:33 UTC
Estudiantes La Plata Res vs Deportivo Riestra Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Estudiantes La Plata Res and 1.37 for Deportivo Riestra Res., a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Estudiantes La Plata Res the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estudiantes La Plata Res home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Riestra Res. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estudiantes La Plata Res to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 24% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Estudiantes La Plata Res and 1.37 for Deportivo Riestra Res., a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
Estudiantes La Plata Res
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgrano Córdoba Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanús Res. · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newell's Old Boys Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa y Justicia Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. · 0-2 (L)
Deportivo Riestra Res.
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Colón Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central Res. · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgrano Córdoba Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanús Res. · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newell's Old Boys Res. · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.