· Analysis updated 07:54 UTC
Estudiantes La Plata Res vs Lanús Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Estudiantes La Plata Res and 1.48 for Lanús Res., a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Lanús Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.1% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estudiantes La Plata Res home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lanús Res. away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–07.9%
Recent form
Estudiantes La Plata Res
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgrano Córdoba Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanús Res. · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newell's Old Boys Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa y Justicia Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. · 0-2 (L)
Lanús Res.
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Quilmes 2 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes La Plata Res · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Córdoba SdE Res. · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martín San Juan Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Banfield Res. · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · Estudiantes La Plata Res 4-4 Lanús Res. (Reserve League)
- 2026-05-14T18:00:00.000Z · Estudiantes La Plata Res 4-1 Lanús Res. (Reserve League)
- 2024-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · Estudiantes La Plata Res 2-0 Lanús Res. (Reserve League)
- 2024-04-10T18:00:00.000Z · Estudiantes La Plata Res 2-2 Lanús Res. (Reserve League)
- 2023-11-06T14:00:00.000Z · Estudiantes La Plata Res 0-1 Lanús Res. (Reserve League)
- 2023-02-11T12:00:00.000Z · Estudiantes La Plata Res 0-1 Lanús Res. (Reserve League)
- 2022-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · Estudiantes La Plata Res 0-1 Lanús Res. (Reserve League)
- 2022-05-29T17:00:00.000Z · Estudiantes La Plata Res 0-1 Lanús Res. (Reserve League)
- 2022-02-21T12:00:00.000Z · Estudiantes La Plata Res 4-3 Lanús Res. (Reserve League)
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.