· Analysis updated 11:25 UTC
Estudiantes La Plata Res vs Quilmes 2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Estudiantes La Plata Res and 0.72 for Quilmes 2, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Estudiantes La Plata Res the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Estudiantes La Plata Res win
50.0% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estudiantes La Plata Res home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estudiantes La Plata Res to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 29% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Estudiantes La Plata Res and 0.72 for Quilmes 2, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 32% and both teams to score at 37%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.3%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–011.1%
- 0–19.7%
Recent form
Estudiantes La Plata Res
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Res. · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferro 2 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors Res. · 2-3 (L)
Quilmes 2
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Estudiantes La Plata Res win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.