Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Sportist Svoge Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Etar Veliko Tarnovo and 1.13 for Sportist Svoge, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Etar Veliko Tarnovo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Etar Veliko Tarnovo home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sportist Svoge away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Etar Veliko Tarnovo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 27% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Etar Veliko Tarnovo and 1.13 for Sportist Svoge, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Etar Veliko Tarnovo win42%

Draw27%

Sportist Svoge win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.8%
1–011.4%
0–19.5%
2–18.6%
0–08.4%

Recent form

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fratria · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernomorets Balchik · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-14T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Hebar 1918 · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia II · 1-0 (W)

Sportist Svoge

2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hebar 1918 · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Neftochimic Burgas · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Sofia II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vihren · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia II	13	7	4	2	14	25
2	Vihren	13	7	4	2	13	25
3	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	13	7	4	2	13	25
4	Fratria	12	6	4	2	7	22
5	Beroe	13	6	3	4	5	21
6	Hebar 1918	13	6	2	5	8	20
7	Yantra 2019	13	6	2	5	2	20
8	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	13	5	5	3	1	20
9	Rilski Sportist	13	5	4	4	2	19
10	Marek	13	5	3	5	0	18
11	Nesebar	13	5	3	5	2	18
12	Spartak Pleven	13	5	2	6	-10	17
13	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	12	5	2	5	-1	17
14	Ludogorets II	11	4	3	4	0	15
15	Sportist Svoge	13	2	5	6	-5	11
16	Montana	12	3	2	7	-11	11
17	Dobrudzha	12	2	3	7	-9	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	13	0	1	12	-31	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.